The Foreign Service Journal, March 2008

A Brazilian Perspective USA 2030 — Predictions Dr. Attila de Souza Leão Andrade Jr., Astemari Publishers, 2007, $20, paperback, 217 pages. R EVIEWED BY L OUIS V. R IGGIO USA 2030 — Predictions is a remarkable effort in futurology aimed at the United States. It follows the publication in Brazil last year of Andrade’s Brasil 2030 — As Previsões ( Brazil 2030 — The Predictions ) that had the same objective regarding his home country. But unlike that book, USA 2030 — Predictions is not a translation from the Portuguese; the author wrote it in English. After earning both a master’s de- gree and a doctorate in international law at Yale University while on Ful- bright programs in the 1970s, Dr. At- tila Andrade Jr. became one of Brazil’s leading international lawyers. A fre- quent visitor to the United States, he is currently a guest lecturer at the University of Miami. His basic methodology is influ- enced heavily by Dr. Charles Reich’s seminal work, The Greening of America, published in 1970 . He also frequently cites such distinguished thinkers as Max Weber, Alvin Toffler and Samuel P. Huntington. Yet while Andrade is highly familiar with America, Americans and Europe, the book’s analysis strongly reflects his Brazilian roots. For example, while acknowledging the role of the Calvinist/Protestant work ethic in America’s achievements, the author maintains that the U.S. and the West have succeeded because of their disregard for religion and reli- gious principles — progress through freedom from religion, as it were. Whether or not a society understands it must create wealth is an important consideration for Andrade. Overall, Andrade is very bullish about America’s future because of our competitive edge in knowledge and technology. Perhaps the best encap- sulation of his genuine enthusiasm for America comes early in the book: “In other words, America has become a living entity, a real God.” Yet as a proponent of world peace and playing by the rules set by the United Nations, he decries what he calls Washington’s “bombs and bul- lets approach” to foreign policy. He is particularly critical of U.S. policy toward the Middle East, including a focus on Israel to the exclusion of other players and the Iraq interven- tion, which he denounces as “blood for oil.” Very critical of the “military- industrial complex,” he believes we will wage war for commercial advan- tage and raise taxes to pay for interna- tional adventures. Expanding his focus, Andrade makes a case for growing synergy among the following geographic blocs: the United States, European Union and Brazil; Russia, India and what he calls the “Orthodox states,” that is, the parts of Eastern Europe where Orthodox Christianity dominated; and China and the Islamic world. On that last point, I highly recommend his perspective on dealing with Islam, rooted in the conviction that the West must resist the temptation to use the terrorism threat to launch a new ver- sion of the Crusades. Generally upbeat about China’s economic growth, Andrade specu- lates that it may stumble at some point, requiring Washington to step in with a massive Marshall Plan. Given the dollar’s current fall and how Americans feel about that coun- try (and taxes), that prediction may be less persuasive than others he makes. (I should also note that the book would have benefited from bet- ter proofreading.) Andrade’s erudition requires read- ers to have a good dictionary handy. They should also be prepared for many new references, ranging from “fractal history” to an unusual inter- pretation of FDR’s famous Dec. 8, 1941, address to Congress following Pearl Harbor. Near the end of the work, Andrade states, “It makes all the sense in the world for the U.S. State Department to pay more attention … to bring Brazil along as its continuing ally and partner in the world arena.” Toward that end, and to give Brazilians and others a better appreciation of Ameri- can society and its complexities, we need far more Foreign Service posts in thinly staffed countries like Brazil and considerably expanded (and fund- ed) public diplomacy efforts. USA 2030 — Predictions argues admirably for this goal. Louis V. Riggio was a Foreign Service officer from 1963 to 1964 and 1982 to 1984. Currently a writer and profes- sional linguist in Portuguese, he works from time to time on State Depart- ment contracts and writes occasional- ly for Newsmax.com on international and economic issues. 72 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / M A R C H 2 0 0 8 B O O K S Andrade is bullish about America’s future because of our competitive edge in knowledge and technology.