The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2017

20 JULY-AUGUST 2017 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL For more than 25 years, negotiators have worked around the world to meet the climate change crisis. The need to deepen this work will only increase, and greater FS engagement is essential. AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT That Demands Greater FS Engagement Tim Lattimer is an FSO who has served in multiple assignments in the Bureau of Oceans and Interna- tional Environmental and Scientific Affairs (OES), most recently as deputy director of the Office of Global Change (2012-2016). He received the State Department’s 2016 Frank E. Loy Award for Environmental Diplomacy. His past overseas assignments include the Philippines and a variety of economics and environment, science, technology and health (ESTH) posts in Latin America. An environmental planner in California for 10 years prior to joining the State Department in 1994, he will return to the private sector later this year. T hough it was slow to unfold, the emerging crisis posed perhaps the gravest potential threat ever to human civilization. It menaced human health, economic development, social cohe- sion and the security of nations around the world. The only way out was to pull together a cooperative effort involv- ing the entire global community. This meant undertaking the most complex, painstaking diplomatic process in history, with far-reaching implications. Are we talking about an impending attack by space aliens? No. Thermonuclear war? Nyet . Viral pandemic? Nope. Climate change? Yes, absolutely. Climate change is one of the gravest dangers facing the world today, with profound implications for the future of all humanity. Notwithstanding the specious denials put forward by self-styled “experts” and the seeds of doubt sown by fossil fuel–funded think-tanks and pundits, the weight of scientific evidence shows FOCUS that the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities are already driving significant changes to Earth’s climate. As a result, overall global average temperature has risen by about 0.85 degrees Celsius (about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit) since the dawn of industrialization in the late 1800s. While no increase is deemed safe, an increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius is widely viewed as the upper limit of what we might tolerate. Beyond that, we would likely face greater risks of catastrophic impacts. If left unchecked, this planet—still our only home—is on track to experience a global temperature rise of 4 degrees Celsius or more by 2100. Regardless of the Trump administration’s posture on the Paris Agreement, FSOs will have to contend—for better or worse—with the very real and endur- ing challenges and opportunities posed by climate change. These issues will long remain central to U.S. security and economic interests and will likewise remain of great interest to our partners around the world. We ignore them at our peril. We are already seeing the effects of this change. Without a decisive shift to low-carbon energy sources, the impact will be even more devastating, threatening the very existence of some nations. Among other things, climate change brings: • Increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (e.g., prolonged droughts, killer heat waves and intense episodes of rain or snow); • Changes in water patterns or flows, undermining agricul- tural production and food security; • A rise in sea level, inundating coastal communities, destroy- ing infrastructure, salinating sources of fresh water and submerg- ing low-lying islands and prompting mass migrations; • Ocean warming and acidification, which will destroy coral BY T I M LATT I MER ON ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY